Telus, Rogers and Bell see mobile tsunami on horizon
Say smart phone adoption is just the first wave
Talk, text, email, entertainment, and next, the deluge.
Telecoms around the world are scrambling to build and maintain wireless networks that can satisfy the expectations of government, business and the public.
If you were to create a graph showing a century’s worth of communications technology adoption, starting back with phone, TV, mobile, Internet, it would look flat relative to the upward spike that began a couple of years ago when the iPhone hit the market.
“It’s happening with mobile networks around the world,” Bernard Lord, president of the Canadian Wireless Communications Association, said in an interview. “It’s the fastest technology adoption rate ever — greater than the traditional Internet, greater than PCs, greater than mainframe computers.”Lord recalled one statistic that stood out for him at an international conference for the wireless industry last week in New Orleans.
“One of the speakers said there were more people connected with mobile devices in the world today than people that have electricity or running water.
“It’s as if a few years ago we were riding bicycles and going 15 kilometres an hour on dirt roads. Now we are driving tractor-trailer trucks that go faster than Ferraris. And there are more of us, and more devices. The dirt road has to become a 64-lane highway.”
Whether it’s a projected $32-billion boost to the Canadian economy from the creation of a digital payments system, smartphone access to a live TV broadcast or an interactive map for navigating an unfamiliar city, it’s an enterprise that needs a wireless system to travel on. It’s a big job, getting bigger by the day.
Radio waves travel on what the industry calls spectrum. AM and FM radio stations occupy a range of frequencies — spectrum — on the airwaves. Mobile phone communications do the same.
A decade ago, a network of high-powered cell towers on a relatively narrow spectrum served all of a telecom’s wireless customers.
Not today. Industry Canada has been staging multi-billion-dollar auctions in which telecoms bid on spectrum to increase the carrying capacity of their wireless systems. They can’t create new spectrum out of thin air, so regulators are busy reallocating existing frequencies.
For example, the recent eviction of Canadian and U.S. television networks from the 700 megahertz frequency to a narrower digital frequency was intended to free up more space for mobile communications. In other words, the government is pushing TV and other communication services aside to make room for mobile.
Neither the regulators nor the mobile service providers have much choice in this.
As a rule of thumb, each customer converting from a conventional cellphone to a smartphone immediately consumes 25 to 30 times as much air time on a carrier’s network.
Telus compares it to their recent wireless installation in refurbished BC Place.
“In days of voice calling, one cell site, one channel, would have sufficed. Today, to serve the requirements of the same number of people, there are 100 channels, 100 cell sites. You just need a tonne of capacity when people are using smartphones,” Eros Spadotto, Telus executive vice-president for technology strategy and operations, said.
Telecoms around the world are scrambling to build and maintain wireless networks that can satisfy the expectations of government, business and the public.
If you were to create a graph showing a century’s worth of communications technology adoption, starting back with phone, TV, mobile, Internet, it would look flat relative to the upward spike that began a couple of years ago when the iPhone hit the market.
“It’s happening with mobile networks around the world,” Bernard Lord, president of the Canadian Wireless Communications Association, said in an interview. “It’s the fastest technology adoption rate ever — greater than the traditional Internet, greater than PCs, greater than mainframe computers.”Lord recalled one statistic that stood out for him at an international conference for the wireless industry last week in New Orleans.
“One of the speakers said there were more people connected with mobile devices in the world today than people that have electricity or running water.
“It’s as if a few years ago we were riding bicycles and going 15 kilometres an hour on dirt roads. Now we are driving tractor-trailer trucks that go faster than Ferraris. And there are more of us, and more devices. The dirt road has to become a 64-lane highway.”
Whether it’s a projected $32-billion boost to the Canadian economy from the creation of a digital payments system, smartphone access to a live TV broadcast or an interactive map for navigating an unfamiliar city, it’s an enterprise that needs a wireless system to travel on. It’s a big job, getting bigger by the day.
Radio waves travel on what the industry calls spectrum. AM and FM radio stations occupy a range of frequencies — spectrum — on the airwaves. Mobile phone communications do the same.
A decade ago, a network of high-powered cell towers on a relatively narrow spectrum served all of a telecom’s wireless customers.
Not today. Industry Canada has been staging multi-billion-dollar auctions in which telecoms bid on spectrum to increase the carrying capacity of their wireless systems. They can’t create new spectrum out of thin air, so regulators are busy reallocating existing frequencies.
For example, the recent eviction of Canadian and U.S. television networks from the 700 megahertz frequency to a narrower digital frequency was intended to free up more space for mobile communications. In other words, the government is pushing TV and other communication services aside to make room for mobile.
Neither the regulators nor the mobile service providers have much choice in this.
As a rule of thumb, each customer converting from a conventional cellphone to a smartphone immediately consumes 25 to 30 times as much air time on a carrier’s network.
Telus compares it to their recent wireless installation in refurbished BC Place.
“In days of voice calling, one cell site, one channel, would have sufficed. Today, to serve the requirements of the same number of people, there are 100 channels, 100 cell sites. You just need a tonne of capacity when people are using smartphones,” Eros Spadotto, Telus executive vice-president for technology strategy and operations, said.
Mobile banking, introduced barely two years ago, is already old news. This week the Canadian Bankers Association announced a consensus among banks and credit unions on guidelines for a “voluntary, secure, open” mobile payment system.
A day later Rogers Communications and CIBC announced plans to introduce later this year mobile payments for retail purchases — you tap your smartphone to pay at the till. No cash, no ATM card needed.
Bell Canada and Telus are negotiating with financial institutions to deliver the same service.
If you’re a wireless service provider, it’s an exciting and expensive challenge. Canada’s three largest carriers, Telus, Rogers, and Bell Canada, spent a combined $1.1 billion last year on research and development — mainly to stay a year or two ahead of their mobile subscribers, rather than trade blows with the competition.
Again, they don’t have much choice.
As many as 60 per cent of the big three carriers’ most lucrative customers, so-called post-paid subscribers whose phone bills are totalled up at the end of the month, now reach for smartphones when they want to check a friend’s whereabouts, send a photo or update their status on Facebook — and that proportion grows daily.
Earlier this month the big three announced a joint agreement to use a common set of software development tools that will allow independent app developers to develop products that will work across mobile networks — both in Canada and around the world.
Telus has spent $900 million since 2009, has 600 full-time R&D employees, and about 3,200 involved in technology and the operation of its core communications networks.
Some of that investment goes to hardware, but a lot of it goes simply into figuring out how to keep the system running seamlessly.
“It is absolutely a challenge,” Spadotto said. “It is stunning. Take a look at some of the new devices that have come to bear in the market — whether they are the Apple devices or Android, they have really changed the users’ perspective on how they use the network and their expectations of the network — and it has caused fundamental changes in the way we design and build networks.
“Canada in particular, and I would say Telus specifically, have gone from a situation where you could be a fast follower of what’s happening in other parts of the world, predominantly in the U.S., to where now we are very much at the forefront of R&D.
“Because of that we are actually inventing stuff now. When we invent stuff, I would say our inventions tend to be around methods and procedures, whereas the invention of equipment is really around the purview of the manufacturer.”
Smaller mobile transmitters are considered superior to large ones because you can concentrate them, like the Telus BC Place project, in areas that are likely to attract high volumes of activity. Telus, for example, has a concentration of mini-transmitters in the vicinity of English Bay to support the annual Celebration of Light fireworks festival.
A day later Rogers Communications and CIBC announced plans to introduce later this year mobile payments for retail purchases — you tap your smartphone to pay at the till. No cash, no ATM card needed.
Bell Canada and Telus are negotiating with financial institutions to deliver the same service.
If you’re a wireless service provider, it’s an exciting and expensive challenge. Canada’s three largest carriers, Telus, Rogers, and Bell Canada, spent a combined $1.1 billion last year on research and development — mainly to stay a year or two ahead of their mobile subscribers, rather than trade blows with the competition.
Again, they don’t have much choice.
As many as 60 per cent of the big three carriers’ most lucrative customers, so-called post-paid subscribers whose phone bills are totalled up at the end of the month, now reach for smartphones when they want to check a friend’s whereabouts, send a photo or update their status on Facebook — and that proportion grows daily.
Earlier this month the big three announced a joint agreement to use a common set of software development tools that will allow independent app developers to develop products that will work across mobile networks — both in Canada and around the world.
Telus has spent $900 million since 2009, has 600 full-time R&D employees, and about 3,200 involved in technology and the operation of its core communications networks.
Some of that investment goes to hardware, but a lot of it goes simply into figuring out how to keep the system running seamlessly.
“It is absolutely a challenge,” Spadotto said. “It is stunning. Take a look at some of the new devices that have come to bear in the market — whether they are the Apple devices or Android, they have really changed the users’ perspective on how they use the network and their expectations of the network — and it has caused fundamental changes in the way we design and build networks.
“Canada in particular, and I would say Telus specifically, have gone from a situation where you could be a fast follower of what’s happening in other parts of the world, predominantly in the U.S., to where now we are very much at the forefront of R&D.
“Because of that we are actually inventing stuff now. When we invent stuff, I would say our inventions tend to be around methods and procedures, whereas the invention of equipment is really around the purview of the manufacturer.”
Smaller mobile transmitters are considered superior to large ones because you can concentrate them, like the Telus BC Place project, in areas that are likely to attract high volumes of activity. Telus, for example, has a concentration of mini-transmitters in the vicinity of English Bay to support the annual Celebration of Light fireworks festival.
Money is flooding out to create so-called LTE or Long Term Evolution wireless networks offering the capacity and speed to support the volume of information that smartphones are expected to move — such as tens of thousands of people simultaneously sending out photos of an exploding firework during the festival.
Bell and Rogers have state-of-the-art LTE service in 17 regions around the country, Telus has 14. All plan expansions. Telus, for example, plans to offer the service in 20 British Columbia communities by year’s end.
Where does this all end?
“In a lot of ways, it doesn’t,” Spadotto said. “We’re deploying our LTE network right now and, believe it or not, we’re already toying with LTE release 10 or some people call it LTB or LT advanced. That’s already in our labs. The market has created such an insatiable need for this bandwidth connectivity that we are somewhat on a technology treadmill right now. It won’t end.”
It may just be starting.
Even as smartphone adoption accelerates, Gord Nelson, Rogers vice-president for B.C. said, “we’ve got another new phenomenon going on where tablet [computer] deployment is exploding throughout the world with people now having a laptop, a notebook, an iPad, a smartphone, and so on. There is explosive growth across the board.”
The difference between a wireless Internet connection on a smartphone, and the in-home connection on a laptop connected to the Internet via a family’s Wi-Fi device, has vanished, Nelson added.
“We’ve invested about $625 million in the last five years alone [in B.C.]. My sense is that we are going to continue to see huge investments like that in Canada for Rogers ... because there is that insatiable demand for this type of connectivity. I quite frankly don’t think we’ve seen anything yet. I think we’re at the early stages of the adoption of this technology and I think it’s going to continue to explode.”
Robert Switzman, senior director of emerging business for Rogers, anticipates an upwelling of mobile communication in which smartphone use emerges as just one of many components.
“It’s not just you and your phone, or you and your laptop or tablet or gaming console. It’s manufacturers working on connections to cars to track their reliability, health authorities and doctors, on and on, or tracking the performance of home energy systems, appliances,” Switzman said.
“Very quickly, we’re looking to a world of connected fridges, appliances, light switches, all that type of stuff — and with that comes your ability to use the Internet to see what’s happening in your home, control things, get real time information. It changes the way you interact in your day to day life with your home, with the stuff in your home, manage your energy better.”Bell’s Wade Oosterman said the key will be a continued commitment by the federal government to ensure there’s enough spectrum to sustain industry growth.
Bell and Rogers have state-of-the-art LTE service in 17 regions around the country, Telus has 14. All plan expansions. Telus, for example, plans to offer the service in 20 British Columbia communities by year’s end.
Where does this all end?
“In a lot of ways, it doesn’t,” Spadotto said. “We’re deploying our LTE network right now and, believe it or not, we’re already toying with LTE release 10 or some people call it LTB or LT advanced. That’s already in our labs. The market has created such an insatiable need for this bandwidth connectivity that we are somewhat on a technology treadmill right now. It won’t end.”
It may just be starting.
Even as smartphone adoption accelerates, Gord Nelson, Rogers vice-president for B.C. said, “we’ve got another new phenomenon going on where tablet [computer] deployment is exploding throughout the world with people now having a laptop, a notebook, an iPad, a smartphone, and so on. There is explosive growth across the board.”
The difference between a wireless Internet connection on a smartphone, and the in-home connection on a laptop connected to the Internet via a family’s Wi-Fi device, has vanished, Nelson added.
“We’ve invested about $625 million in the last five years alone [in B.C.]. My sense is that we are going to continue to see huge investments like that in Canada for Rogers ... because there is that insatiable demand for this type of connectivity. I quite frankly don’t think we’ve seen anything yet. I think we’re at the early stages of the adoption of this technology and I think it’s going to continue to explode.”
Robert Switzman, senior director of emerging business for Rogers, anticipates an upwelling of mobile communication in which smartphone use emerges as just one of many components.
“It’s not just you and your phone, or you and your laptop or tablet or gaming console. It’s manufacturers working on connections to cars to track their reliability, health authorities and doctors, on and on, or tracking the performance of home energy systems, appliances,” Switzman said.
“Very quickly, we’re looking to a world of connected fridges, appliances, light switches, all that type of stuff — and with that comes your ability to use the Internet to see what’s happening in your home, control things, get real time information. It changes the way you interact in your day to day life with your home, with the stuff in your home, manage your energy better.”Bell’s Wade Oosterman said the key will be a continued commitment by the federal government to ensure there’s enough spectrum to sustain industry growth.
“From phone calls, to text messaging then email, now web browsing, mobile TV, banking. The list grows and grows,” Oosterman, Bell mobility and residential services president, said in an interview.
“From a technology perspective if you can stay ahead of that curve or at least keep up with that curve, Canadian consumers can’t get hurt.
“There’s no point having a really great set of functionalities if you then don’t have the capacity to satisfy that functionality. All you have to do is try to make a phone call in New York City and you know what I mean. You can’t get out anywhere. The networks are too congested. You go to look something up on your browser on the fly and you just spin and spin and spin. The networks are congested.”
ssimpson@vancouversun.comTwitter.com/ScottSimpsun
“From a technology perspective if you can stay ahead of that curve or at least keep up with that curve, Canadian consumers can’t get hurt.
“There’s no point having a really great set of functionalities if you then don’t have the capacity to satisfy that functionality. All you have to do is try to make a phone call in New York City and you know what I mean. You can’t get out anywhere. The networks are too congested. You go to look something up on your browser on the fly and you just spin and spin and spin. The networks are congested.”
ssimpson@vancouversun.comTwitter.com/ScottSimpsun
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